More than 25 years, 475 surveys, and 500,000 individual interviews later, the partnership has proved an enduring one. (See Langer, Public Perspective, May 2003. Weights are trimmed to a range of 0.2 to 6.0, again as with ABC/Post national polls. Spanish-language interviewing in SSRS omnibus surveys began in October 2009. Households were selected by random-digit dialing. Landline numbers are drawn proportionate to their estimated distribution in the country’s nine Census divisions. As with ABC/Post national polls, a base weight (frame overlap adjustment) is applied - 1.0 for landline-only or cell-only respondents and 0.5 for dual cell and landline users. A sampling interval is determined by dividing the universe of eligible 100-blocks by the desired sample size. Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? On the other hand, surveys that, for instance, do no within-household selection, or use listed-only samples, will increase their cooperation or contact rates (and therefore response rates), but at the expense of random selection or population coverage. Methodology Sample View help for Sample. From October 2008 through June 2015 we added c… A new ABC News/Washington Post poll. In July 2015, post-stratification by sample type was discontinued and Census region and phone service (landline only, dual service and cell-only) were added to the rim weighting variables. As far back as 1981, in “Questions & Answers in Attitude Surveys,” Schuman and Presser, describing two samples with different response rates but similar results, reported (p. 332), “Apparently the answers and associations we investigate are largely unrelated to factors affecting these response rate differences.”, Among many other sources, in "The Causes and Consequences of Response Rates in Surveys by the News Media and Government Contractor Survey Research Firms,” in Advances in Telephone Survey Methodology, Chapter 23, Wiley 2007), Holbrook, Krosnick and Pfent reported that “lower response rates seem not to substantially decrease demographic representativeness within the range we examined. The latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, released Thursday morning, Finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 47-44 percent in a four-day average among likely voters. Sampling error can be calculated when probability sampling methods, such as those described here, are employed, using the standard formula (at the 95 percent confidence level) of (SQRT(.25/sample size))*1.96, plus adjustment for design effects. TOPLINE & METHODOLOGY About the Study This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted October 23 to October 24, 2020 by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. stream Rigorous methodology and transparency have always been a hallmark of all Abt polling work, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll is widely recognized as one of the most respected and accurate public opinion polls. For exchanges or 1,000-blocks that have been classified by their carrier as providing both landline and wireless service, each 100-block is compared to the database of landline 100-blocks; 100-blocks that appear on the landline frame are removed from the wireless frame and 100-blocks with no directory-listed numbers are retained. Until 2008 we used cell-based weighting, in which respondents were classified into one of 48 or 32 cells (depending on sample size) based on their age, race, sex and education; weights were assigned so the proportion in each cell matched the Census Bureau’s most recent Current Population Survey data. Methodologically, in all or nearly all cases we require a probability-based sample, with high levels of coverage of a credible sampling frame. There can be other sources of differences in polls, such as question wording and order and systematic noncoverage or selection bias. Methodology Sample View help for Sample. It cannot be assumed that a higher response rate in and of itself ensures greater data integrity. New polls, polling analysis and poll information from the Post. Langer Research Associates is the primary news poll provider for ABC News, responsible for ABC’s partnership in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and the network’s ongoing coverage of public opinion on politics, policy, social trends and international issues. <>/ExtGState<>/XObject<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 612 792] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> ABC and The Washington Post direct the methodological approach to full-length ABC/Post polls in consultation with our field work provider for these surveys, Abt Associates of Rockville, MD. It’s worth noting that the ABC News/Washington Post survey comes as a series of other key polls were released on Sunday, indicating Biden’s narrow lead over Trump nationally and in battleground states, even though some state races remain very close.. The proportion of cell phone interviews again is driven by the NHIS estimate of cell phone-only respondents; to achieve our target, from July 2015 through February 2020 65 percent of all interviews were conducted by cell phone, with the remaining 35 percent interviewed via landline. Before October 2008, full-length ABC/Post polls were conducted by calling samples of landline telephone numbers only. Jury: Black bikers' race was a factor, but city won't pay, Permanent resident facing deportation hoping for Biden's help: 'Need a miracle', Fall 2013 issue of the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, Merkle, Langer, Cohen, Piekarski, Benford & Lambert, 2009, Public Opinion Quarterly, Merkle & Langer, Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2008, Consequences of Reducing Nonresponse in a National Telephone Survey, Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey, The Causes and Consequences of Response Rates in Surveys by the News Media and Government Contractor Survey Research Firms, Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World. Cell-only respondents are not offered compensation, but a reimbursement check is offered if use of minutes is raised as an objection. Abt SRBI’s professional interviewers, and their supervisors, are extensively trained in interviewing practices, including techniques designed to achieve the highest possible respondent cooperation. Data are adjusted to account for the greater probability of respondents who have both a cell and landline phone, compared with those who are cell-only or landline-only. In November 2014 we posted online available sample dispositions for all ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1999, and have updated them regularly since. Langer Research Associates, primary polling provider to ABC News, advises the news division on standards for disclosure, validity, reliability and unbiased content in survey research and evaluates data when requested to establish whether it meets these standards. ABC/Post poll design effects averaged 1.25 in 2016, rising to an average of 1.38 in 2019. Interviews are carried out by professional live interviewers employed by Abt Associates, working from Abt call centers in Fort Myers, Florida; Charleston, West Virginia; and McAllen, Texas; or from their homes, under full remote supervision. 2009). endobj It found a 51 percent approval rating on April 16, though the average approval rating for April 16 to April 18 was 48 percent. In addition to recommending against reporting surveys that do not meet appropriate standards for validity and reliability, we promote and strongly encourage the reporting of good-quality polls that break new ground in opinion research. Junk in, Junk out! An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday morning reports that more than half of registered voters, ... “A lot of the methodology used today is the same methodology … The final ABC News/Washington Post poll had him winning in the suburbs by 5 points. Until 2005, ABC News followed the industry norm of excluding all listed business numbers (compiled from sources such as Yellow Pages directories and the Dun and Bradstreet Business Data database) from the sample. We analyze subgroups only as small as 100 cases (or very near it). ICPSR06816-v1. For numbers that are not 1,000-block pooled, cell phone service information is available at the exchange level only; therefore all numbers in those exchanges also are included. <> In each sample, phone numbers are released for interviewing in replicates by Census region (cell) or division (landline) to allow for sample control. This database of directory-listed numbers is then used to determine all active blocks – as we define it, contiguous groups of 100 phone numbers for which more than one residential number is listed. Compare Emerson to the ABC News-Washington Post poll, which describes its methodology … ���k��k�>n��n�'���2�D~��[��7������>��hQ���>N�N�]�Pi���W�+��0?�1 ���|���+B���dž�0�뛇�؀�M�ȗ�)�"��麈/���F�1ߢ��8 ����Q�@�� ����M�6�m����. Each 100-block is assigned to a county based on the billing coordinates of the exchange. 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events. METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2010, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults, including landline and cell- … endobj This evidence challenges the assumptions that response rates are a key indicator of survey quality.”. METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 6-9, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 879 registered voters, including 725 likely voters. METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 25-28, 2010, among a random national sample of 1,202 adults, including landline and cell- The surveys were designed by Langer Research Associates for ABC News in conjunction with The Washington Post, with sampling, fieldwork and data processing by Abt Associates. Occasional shorter-length ABC/Post polls are conducted via an omnibus survey produced by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA; see methodological details here. If any of these are lacking, we recommend against reporting the results. That is not a good method of polling. By including business-listed numbers, for instance, we increase coverage yet decrease contact rates (and therefore overall response rates). The non-overlapping design served well, especially through a time in which cell phone interviews were much costlier than landline interviews. What the writer does not disclose is that the Washington Post / ABC poll is highly skewed to the left, so its conclusions are totally unreliable. Samples were composed as follows: Sample frames are sorted by state geopolitical regions. Before October 2008, full-length ABC/Post polls were conducted by calling samples of landline telephone numbers only. Cell phone and landline samples are produced by Survey Sampling Inc. of Shelton, Conn. For landline interviews, SSI selects a sample of landline households in the continental United States via random digit dialing, in which all landline telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, have an equal probability of selection. Each telephone exchange in the landline sample is assigned to the county where it’s most prevalent. 7/12 to 7/15 Washington Post-ABC News poll - National politics story list, topline and methods - Crosstabs. For landline respondents, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest male or youngest female at home. 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